基于时空特性的空中交通流预测综述

Review of air traffic flow prediction based on spatio-temporal characteristics

摘要:

随着空中交通流量的持续增长，空中交通拥堵和延误问题日益凸显，对空中交通管理系统提出了更高要求。本文综述了基于时空特性的空中交通流预测研究，重点分析了空中交通流的混沌特性、分形特性和多尺度特性等关键时空特性，并探讨了这些特性在空中交通流预测模型中的应用。系统梳理了近年来空中交通流预测的研究脉络，总结了基于4D轨迹预测方法、模型驱动方法和数据驱动方法三种主要的预测技术，并对基于时空特性的空中交通流预测未来发展方向进行了展望，以期为智能空中交通管理的发展提供理论参考。

Abstract:

With the continuous growth of air traffic flow, air traffic congestion and delay problems are becoming more and more prominent, which puts forward higher requirements for air traffic management system. This paper reviews the research on air traffic flow prediction based on spatio-temporal characteristics, and focuses on the key spatio-temporal characteristics of air traffic flow, such as chaotic characteristics, fractal characteristics and multi-scale characteristics, and discusses the application of these characteristics in air traffic flow prediction model. This paper systematically reviews the research context of air traffic flow prediction in recent years, summarizes three main prediction technologies based on 4D trajectory prediction method, model-driven method and data-driven method, and looks forward to the future development direction of air traffic flow prediction based on spatio-temporal characteristics, in order to provide theoretical reference for the development of intelligent air traffic management.