无人机系统老龄化安全风险评估研究

Research on Safety Risk Assessment of Aged Unmanned Aerial Vehicle System

摘要:

现有无人机风险评估多关注小型无人机，大型无人机老龄化评估体系研究较少，且存在评价过程中指标权重考量不足、证据融合效果差的问题。本研究提出改进D-S证据理论方法，采用主客观组合赋权，结合三角模糊数处理专家评分，优化证据融合以求解风险等级。以某大型无人机系统为研究对象，从地面站系统、机体平台、初始缺陷等5个维度构建2级18项评价指标体系，结合运用规律与历史数据开展实证分析。结果表明，该系统为中低风险等级，隶属度达73%。与同类型方法对比，本文方法在处理复杂权重与多源信息融合上优势明显，可为大型老龄无人机系统风险预警与管控提供精准决策依据。

Abstract:

The existing drone risk assessment mostly focuses on small drones, and there is relatively little research on the aging assessment system of large drones. In addition, there are problems such as insufficient consideration of indicator weights and poor evidence fusion effect in the evaluation process. This study proposes an improved D-S evidence theory method, using a combination of subjective and objective weighting, combined with triangular fuzzy number processing expert scoring, to optimize evidence fusion and solve risk levels. Taking a large unmanned aerial vehicle system as the research object, a two-level 18 item evaluation index system is constructed from five dimensions including ground station system, aircraft platform, and initial defects. Empirical analysis is carried out by combining application patterns and historical data. The results indicate that the system is at a medium to low risk level, with a membership degree of 73%. Compared with similar methods, this method has significant advantages in handling complex weights and multi-source information fusion, and can provide accurate decision-making basis for risk warning and control of large-scale elderly unmanned aerial vehicle systems.