基于改进SIS模型的飞行安全风险分析

Study of calculating stability derivative

摘要:

航空安全是全球关注的重点，随着航空系统的日益复杂化，对其进行系统性的风险分析变得尤为重要。结合危害与可操作性分析（HAZOP）方法和物理事理人理（WSR）方法论，全面识别航空安全中的关键风险节点；通过构建基于真实案例的复杂网络模型，模拟风险要素在航空网络中的动态传播过程；根据风险的差异确定风险等级和传播概率，基于风险等级异化不同风险间的传播概率，以此改进易感—感染—易感者（SIS）模型并量化风险传播的动态特性；通过对 47 起航空案例进行分析，以受鸟击作为情景，识别其最可能引起的 10个高风险节点及其风险传播链。结果表明：相比于传统的 SIS 模型，采用改进 SIS 模型的风险传播分析结果风险发生概率跨度更广，可以更敏感地捕捉不同风险点之间在特定情境传播过程中的相对权重差异，为有效管理航空安全提供参考。

Abstract:

Aviation safety is a global focus, and as the aviation system becomes increasingly complex, it becomes particularly important to conduct systematic risk analysis. This paper combines the HAZOP method with the WSR methodology to comprehensively identify critical risk nodes in aviation safety. By constructing a complex network model based on real-life case studies, the dynamic transmission process of risk elements in the aviation network is simulated. The risk grade and transmission probability were determined according to the difference of risks, and the transmission probability among different risks was differentiated based on the risk grade, so as to improve the susceptible-infection-susceptible (SIS) model and quantify the dynamic characteristics of risk transmission. Finally, through the analysis of 47 aviation cases, taking bird strikes as the scenario, the most likely to cause 10 high-risk nodes and their risk transmission chain are identified. The study shows that, compared with traditional SIS models, the risk quantitative analysis using the improved SIS model can more sensitively identify risks, providing reference for effective management of aviation safety.